Chapter 1, Key Finding 5

Estimates of the global average temperature response to emissions range from +0.7 to +2.4°C per 1,000 Pg C using an ensemble of climate models, temperature observations, and cumulative emissions (Gillett et al., 2013). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2013) estimated that to have a 67% chance of limiting the warming to less than 2°C since 1861 to 1880 will require cumulative emissions from all anthropogenic sources to stay below about 1,000 Pg C since that period, meaning that only 221 Pg C equivalent can be emitted from 2017 forward. Current annual global CO2 emis- sions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production are 10.7 Pg C per year, so this limit could be reached in less than 20 years. This simple estimate, however, has many uncertainties and does not include carbon cycle–climate feedbacks (medium confidence). These conclusions are consistent with the findings of the recent Climate Science Special Report (USGCRP 2017).