Key Finding 1
Broadened Approaches—A range of social scientific research approaches, including people-centered analyses of energy use, governance, vulnerability, scenarios, social-ecological systems, sociotechnical transitions, social networks, and social practices, complements physical science research and informs decision making. Approaches that are people centered and multidisciplinary emphasize that carbon-relevant decisions are often not about energy, transportation, infrastructure, or agriculture, as such, but rather about style, daily living, comfort, convenience, health, and other priorities (very high confidence).
Description of evidence base
For Key Finding 1, physical scientific research has produced extensive information on the so-called greenhouse effect, the overall warming of the global climate, and the contribution made to climate change by human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases; studies of the carbon cycle have confirmed that carbon is being emitted to the atmosphere from human activities. Research that starts with this framing has quantified sectors and activities where mitigation of climate change is technically possible. Yet the ideal global policies, national commitments, and implementation of such policies have not taken place to the degree necessary to substantially reduce emissions. Relevant social science research is needed to understand feasible pathways to both mitigation and adaptation actions using a framing that is centered on people. This need has been increasingly recognized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) and other international, regional, and local organizations concerned with climate change. See Section 6.1; Section 6.2; and Section 6.11 for a more detailed description of the evidence base and relevant citations.
Major uncertainties
Uncertainties include the degree to which societies are vulnerable to climate change, the systematic implications of various candidate actions and policies in specific places, and the capacity and willingness of human institutions and individuals to act.
Assessment of confidence based on evidence and agreement, including short description of nature of evidence and level of agreement
Evidence from the existing body of social scientific research has identified feasible pathways to mitigation with very high confidence.
Summary sentence or paragraph that integrates the above information
There is very high confidence in Key Finding 1 that people-centered social science research can explore and demonstrate feasible and implementable mitigation strategies and actions.
Key Finding 2
Assumed versus Actual Choices—Planners have assumed economically rational energy-use and consumption behaviors and thus have failed to predict actual choices, behaviors, and intervening developments, leading to large gaps between predicted rates of economically attractive purchases of technologies with lower carbon footprints and actual realized purchase rates (high confidence).
Description of evidence base
From large potential emissions reductions calculated by integrated assessment models to expected behavior changes encouraged by employers, results of first-best policies and programs have been disappointing at levels from the global to the local. See Section 6.2.2 for a more detailed description of the evidence base and relevant citations. Even activities such as methane capture, which has been calculated to be economically profitable, have not been widely implemented by mining and other industries. Lifecycle calculations that show savings from energy-efficient technologies such as weatherstripping, insulation, and heating and cooling equipment have failed to prompt rational choices to increase energy efficiency or purchase energy-efficient homes in numbers near the technical potential. See Section 6.2.2 and Section 6.9 for a more detailed description of the evidence base showing the difference between predicted, economically rational decisions and actual decision-making processes.
Major uncertainties
Although much has been learned about such “market failures” or “barriers,” the reasons for gaps between predicted and actual results encompass factors that are still uncertain in their specific roles and magnitudes.
Assessment of confidence based on evidence and agreement, including short description of nature of evidence and level of agreement
Numerous studies have conclusively documented gaps between predicted or potential emissions reductions and actual choices and behaviors, leading to a very high confidence level.
Summary sentence or paragraph that integrates the above information
Science findings for Key Finding 2 demonstrate a very high confidence that planners should not assume rational behavior of people and organizations in acquiring more efficient technologies and using them efficiently
Key Finding 3
Social Nature of Energy Use—Opportunities to go beyond a narrow focus on the energy-efficiency industry to recognize and account for the social nature of energy use include 1) engaging in market transformation activities aimed at upstream actors and organizations in supply chains, 2) implementing efficiency codes and standards for buildings and technologies, 3) conducting research to understand how people’s behaviors socially vary and place different loads on even the most efficient energy-using equipment, and 4) adding consideration of what people actually do with energy-using equipment to plans for technology and efficiency improvements (high confidence).
Description of evidence base
Key Finding 3’s four specific areas reflect current research that shows promising results from people-based approaches. Focusing on the systems involved in supply chains—technology designers, manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers—brings people and organizations together in a common purpose to facilitate and provide financial incentives to bring more efficient and less carbon intensive technologies and processes into an industry. Similarly, codes and standards for buildings and technologies create industry-wide benchmarks and so encourage sharing of knowledge and practices as well as competition to be efficient or meet a standard such as “Energy Star” (www.energystar.gov). The variations in human energy use by place and social condition have been well established, but people-based research showing why such variations exist and how they can be addressed needs to be expanded and strengthened. When planners include studies of actual energy-use requirements instead of technical potentials, the efficiency gap lessens or disappears—or, in some cases, actual emissions reductions are greater than predicted. See especially Section 6.2.3 for a more detailed description of these research studies and relevant citations.
Major uncertainties
Uncertainties arise from the lack of needed social science research in these areas as well as from identifying other areas that would benefit from people-based research into carbon mitigation.
Assessment of confidence based on evidence and agreement, including short description of nature of evidence and level of agreement
There are promising areas of research with positive results in at least four areas of energy efficiency, leading to an assessment of high confidence.
Summary sentence or paragraph that integrates the above information
Promising people-based research covered for Key Finding 3 exists as approaches to increase efficiency and thus reduce emissions along supply chains, implement codes and standards for buildings and technologies, understand the variation in energy use among groups and in different places, and include energy-use practices in planning for new technologies or processes. Thus, a level of high confidence is warranted.
Key Finding 4
Governance Systems—Research that examines governance at multiple formal levels (international, national, state/province, cities, other communities) as well as informal processes will identify overlaps and gaps and deepen understanding of effective processes and opportunities involved in carbon management, including a focus on benefits such as health, traffic management, agricultural sustainability, and reduced inequality (medium confidence).
Description of evidence base
As global, “top-down,” effective climate change or carbon management policy has proven elusive and likely not to meet goals, Key Finding 4 shows that attention has turned to governance (but not limited to formal governments), including networks, social processes, cultural norms and values, and multilevel steering institutions. In urban areas and agricultural spaces, this research has proven fruitful in identifying insights into how policies are formed and implemented as people pursue their own goals while changing in response to economic, regulatory, and other social changes. Research shows that co-benefits are often important—benefits such as health, traffic management, comfort and convenience, agricultural sustainability, and reduced inequality. See Section 6.3 for a more detailed description of governance systems research and relevant citations. Each place or network or governance arrangement is a complex system, but patterns can be discerned. Analysis of social, technological, and ecological circumstances can lead to tailored approaches and pathways to effective carbon management. See Section 6.6; Section 6.70; and Section 6.8, for more detailed descriptions of the evidence base for Key Finding 4, as well as relevant citations.
Major uncertainties
Uncertainties arise from the diverse circumstances of places and societies. Research may not identify important factors in candidate strategies for carbon management, even with the knowledge that “one size does not fit all.”
Assessment of confidence based on evidence and agreement, including short description of nature of evidence and level of agreement
Research confirms the importance of governance. However, because of the complexity and diversity of different societies in different places, and at least the partial lack of research to identify patterns of governance important for carbon management, a level of medium confidence has been assessed.
Summary sentence or paragraph that integrates the above information
Both formal and informal governance are important for the prospects of carbon management. However, variations in social institutions, culture, and values influence the effectiveness of governance. Hence, the difficulties in complex systems analysis bring uncertainty into the prospects for effective carbon management. Thus, Key Finding 4 has been assessed as having medium confidence.
